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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.